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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 28-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at TB 30 for 9 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model