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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 2-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model