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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP