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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 28 for 7 yards (58-To.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP