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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 19-R.Aguayo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model