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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

PHI
33.2%
CIN
66.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): +0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 19
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PHI

Ryan Mathews RB Out Knee
Halapoulivaati Vaitai T Out Knee
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Ankle

CIN

Wallace Gilberry DE Out Calf
A.J. Green WR Out Hamstring
Derron Smith S Out Thigh
C.J. Uzomah TE Doubtful Calf
Clark Harris LS Doubtful Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 14
–
CIN 32

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:26 FG CIN (10:26) 2-M.Nugent 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. PHI 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 01:35 TD CIN (1:35) 32-J.Hill right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – CIN 9
  • Q2 06:27 FG CIN (6:27) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. PHI 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:14 TD CIN (:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 85-T.Eifert for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – CIN 19
  • Q3 11:26 TD CIN (11:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 11-B.LaFell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – CIN 25
  • Q3 04:18 FG CIN (4:18) 2-M.Nugent 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. PHI 0 – CIN 29
  • Q3 02:36 TD PHI (2:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – CIN 29
  • Q4 06:57 TD PHI (6:57) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – CIN 29
  • Q4 02:53 FG CIN (2:53) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. PHI 14 – CIN 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:14) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to CIN 47, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (10:26) 2-M.Nugent 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 21%

    (5:57) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 8 yards (53-N.Bradham; 47-T.Burton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (9:16) 6-C.Sturgis 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (6:27) 2-M.Nugent 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:23) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 7 for 1 yard (29-T.Brooks).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (4:18) 2-M.Nugent 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:00) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PHI 32, Center-48-T.Ott. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 39 for 7 yards (21-D.Dennard).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 80%

    (9:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-N.Agholor to CIN 18 for 8 yards (57-V.Rey; 36-S.Williams).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (7:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-N.Agholor to CIN 5 for 8 yards (43-G.Iloka) [56-K.Dansby].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 70%

    (4:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 55-V.Burfict at CIN 33. 55-V.Burfict pushed ob at PHI 20 for 47 yards (11-C.Wentz).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (2:53) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 84%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 47-T.Burton [56-K.Dansby].