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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to CIN 47, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model