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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 7 for 1 yard (29-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model