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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 32

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 47-T.Burton [56-K.Dansby].

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.17 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP