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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-N.Agholor to CIN 18 for 8 yards (57-V.Rey; 36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.13 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model