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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-N.Agholor to CIN 5 for 8 yards (43-G.Iloka) [56-K.Dansby].

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model