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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 29 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.00 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model