4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 55-V.Burfict at CIN 33. 55-V.Burfict pushed ob at PHI 20 for 47 yards (11-C.Wentz).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model