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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Thursday 2016-11-24 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

WAS
42.9%
DAL
57.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.347 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.198 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

WAS 25
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

WAS

Nick Sundberg LS Out Back
Chris Baker DE Questionable Hamstring
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Shoulder
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle

DAL

Barry Church S Out Forearm
Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Chaz Green T Questionable Foot
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Back
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Terrell McClain DT Questionable Thigh
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 26
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 TD DAL (11:15) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 14:08 FG WAS (14:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – DAL 7
  • Q2 08:02 FG DAL (8:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 3 – DAL 10
  • Q2 01:53 TD DAL (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 83-T.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DAL 16
  • Q2 00:07 FG WAS (:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – DAL 17
  • Q4 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – DAL 17
  • Q4 11:44 TD DAL (11:44) 4-D.Prescott right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – DAL 23
  • Q4 09:32 TD WAS (9:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a stop and go route. WAS 18 – DAL 24
  • Q4 06:32 TD DAL (6:32) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – DAL 30
  • Q4 02:00 TD WAS (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 25 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (4:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:28) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to WAS 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-23-L.McFadden.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (14:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 81%

    (8:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 60%

    (3:56) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:20) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 16, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (7:57) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to WAS 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 42%

    (2:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to DAL 42 for 3 yards (30-A.Brown).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 69%

    (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at DAL 29 for 5 yards (50-S.Lee).