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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.58 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model