4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 6

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(14:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP