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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to WAS 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model