4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 55

Washington Commanders 6 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 16, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP