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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 38

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model