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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 25

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model