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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Thursday 2016-11-24 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

MIN
44.0%
DET
56.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.168 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
DET 24
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Marcus Sherels CB Out Rib
Terence Newman CB Doubtful Neck
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Hip
Captain Munnerlyn CB Questionable Ankle
Harrison Smith S Questionable Ankle

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Don Carey S Questionable Hamstring
Graham Glasgow C Questionable Ankle
DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee
Theo Riddick RB Questionable Ankle
Khyri Thornton DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 13
–
DET 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:20 TD DET (7:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 00:44 TD MIN (:44) 44-M.Asiata left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 06:49 FG DET (6:49) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 7 – DET 10
  • Q3 07:07 FG MIN (7:07) 2-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 10 – DET 10
  • Q4 12:41 FG MIN (12:41) 2-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 13 – DET 10
  • Q4 01:49 FG DET (1:49) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 13 – DET 13
  • Q4 00:04 FG DET (:04) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 13 – DET 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (12:01) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:59) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to DET 30, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (6:49) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 52%

    (3:45) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen (92-H.Ngata).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 32%

    (2:07) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 34-Z.Zenner up the middle to MIN 49 for no gain (96-B.Robison). Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 02:00.)

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (1:13) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to DET 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 15-G.Tate (34-A.Sendejo).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:07) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to DET 10, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-A.Roberts to DET 13 for 3 yards (12-C.Johnson, 84-C.Patterson).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:53) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (7:07) 2-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:27) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to MIN 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 14 for -1 yards (35-M.Killebrew, 48-D.Muhlbach).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (12:41) 2-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:26) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to MIN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 20 for 1 yard (38-A.Barnes).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:13) 18-J.Locke punts 57 yards to DET 3, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. PENALTY on DET-52-A.Williams, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 77%

    (1:49) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.