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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 86

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.99 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model