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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to DET 30, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP