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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 2-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP