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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 59

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to MIN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 20 for 1 yard (38-A.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model