4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 30

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.53 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model