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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to DET 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model