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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen (92-H.Ngata).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model