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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SF
25.3%
ARI
74.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Colin Kaepernick (SF): -0.098 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than SF
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 17
–
ARI 26
Projected margin: ARI by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SF

Aaron Lynch LB Out Ankle
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Shoulder
Rashard Robinson CB Questionable Knee
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Back

ARI

Tyrann Mathieu S Out Shoulder
Tharold Simon CB Out Ankle
Alex Okafor LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 20
–
ARI 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 TD ARI (4:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 14:53 TD ARI (14:53) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-55-A.Brooks, Defensive Offside, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 0 – ARI 13
  • Q2 12:20 TD SF (12:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 17-J.Kerley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 14
  • Q2 08:34 FG ARI (8:34) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley. SF 7 – ARI 17
  • Q2 01:37 FG SF (1:37) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 10 – ARI 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley. SF 10 – ARI 20
  • Q3 08:46 FG SF (8:46) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 13 – ARI 20
  • Q4 02:00 TD SF (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – ARI 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG ARI (:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley. SF 20 – ARI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:13) 9-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to SF 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 26, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown pushed ob at ARI 31 for 5 yards (88-G.Celek).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (10:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to ARI 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to ARI 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:10) 9-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to SF 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley to SF 47 for 25 yards (9-R.Quigley). FUMBLES (9-R.Quigley), RECOVERED by ARI-50-G.Martin at ARI 45. 50-G.Martin to ARI 44 for -1 yards (36-D.Johnson). Penalty on SF-84-B.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (8:34) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 55%

    (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 89-V.McDonald pushed ob at ARI 34 for 6 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (1:37) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to ARI 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown ran ob at ARI 36 for 2 yards (36-D.Johnson).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 67%

    (8:46) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:34) 9-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to SF 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 21 for 3 yards (10-B.Golden).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-B.Golden to ARI 35 for 6 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:23) 9-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to SF 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 37%

    (8:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 4, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-20-M.Cromartie.