Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to SF 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley to SF 47 for 25 yards (9-R.Quigley). FUMBLES (9-R.Quigley), RECOVERED by ARI-50-G.Martin at ARI 45. 50-G.Martin to ARI 44 for -1 yards (36-D.Johnson). Penalty on SF-84-B.Bell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.82 EP
54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model