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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 4, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-20-M.Cromartie.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model