Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(13:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to ARI 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown ran ob at ARI 36 for 2 yards (36-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model