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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model