4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP