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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to ARI 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model