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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

IND
39.2%
GB
60.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.007 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

Mike Adams S Out Groin
Chris Carter LB Out Hamstring
Kendall Langford DE Out Knee
Jack Mewhort G Out Tricep
Joe Reitz T Out Concussion
Dwayne Allen TE Questionable Ankle
Henry Anderson DT Questionable Knee
Vontae Davis CB Questionable Concussion
Denzelle Good G Questionable Knee
Curt Maggitt LB Questionable Ankle

GB

Damarious Randall CB Out Groin
J.C. Tretter C Out Knee
Jared Cook TE Out Ankle
James Starks RB Out Knee
Demetri Goodson CB Questionable Concussion
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Hamstring
Quinten Rollins CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 31
–
GB 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD IND 2-M.Crosby kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to IND 1. 28-J.Todman for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 10:50 FG GB (10:50) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. IND 7 – GB 3
  • Q1 04:33 TD IND (4:33) 23-F.Gore left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – GB 3
  • Q1 00:01 TD GB (:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 87-J.Nelson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-54-D.Parry, Defensive Offside, declined. IND 14 – GB 9
  • Q2 12:09 FG IND (12:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 17 – GB 10
  • Q2 00:15 TD IND (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – GB 10
  • Q3 01:49 FG GB (1:49) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. IND 24 – GB 13
  • Q4 09:39 TD IND (9:39) 23-F.Gore right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 30 – GB 13
  • Q4 07:43 TD GB (7:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 31 – GB 19
  • Q4 03:34 TD GB (3:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 31 – GB 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (10:50) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (7:40) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:00) 10-J.Schum punts 54 yards to IND 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 23 for 3 yards (47-J.Ryan). PENALTY on IND-53-E.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 23.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (12:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:45) 10-J.Schum punts 61 yards to IND 14, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at IND 10.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to GB 21, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%

    (5:51) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to IND 4, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to GB 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-T.Davis to GB 26 for 8 yards (92-C.Maggitt).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (1:49) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:28) 1-P.McAfee punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback. PENALTY on IND, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at GB 20.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:34) 10-J.Schum punts 31 yards to IND 29, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:35) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to GB 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.