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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 9

Green Bay Packers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP