Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Green Bay Packers 13

(14:28) 1-P.McAfee punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback. PENALTY on IND, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at GB 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model