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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model