4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model