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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to GB 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-T.Davis to GB 26 for 8 yards (92-C.Maggitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.32 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model