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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to IND 4, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model