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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to GB 20, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP