4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DET
52.4%
MIN
47.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.171 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Out Knee
Riley Reiff T Questionable Illness
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Adairius Barnes CB Questionable Hamstring
Taylor Decker T Questionable Ribs
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Shoulder
Theo Riddick RB Questionable Ankle
Darius Slay CB Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Alex Boone G Out Concussion
Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Out Concussion
Zac Kerin G Out Hand
Tom Johnson DT Questionable Concussion
Jerick McKinnon RB Questionable Ankle
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 22
–
MIN 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 FG DET (7:18) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – MIN 0
  • Q2 13:23 FG MIN (13:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:08 TD DET (:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-A.Boldin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – MIN 3
  • Q3 04:06 TD MIN (4:06) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – MIN 9
  • Q4 12:38 FG DET (12:38) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 13 – MIN 9
  • Q4 00:27 TD MIN (:27) 98-L.Joseph and 62-N.Easton reported in as eligible. 85-R.Ellison right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – MIN 15
  • Q4 00:02 FG DET (:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 16 – MIN 16
  • Q5 08:34 TD DET (8:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. DET 22 – MIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 26%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (7:18) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:31) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to DET 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:04) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIN 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 2 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (13:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at MIN 35 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to DET 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:41) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at MIN 41 for 19 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 81%

    (13:50) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-T.Walker), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke, RECOVERED by DET-27-G.Quin at DET 26. 27-G.Quin pushed ob at MIN 42 for 32 yards (61-J.Berger).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 69%

    (12:38) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (8:14) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to DET 5 for no gain (57-J.Bynes).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:26) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 21 for 2 yards (29-J.Bademosi).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 3 for 8 yards (59-T.Whitehead).