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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 3 for 8 yards (59-T.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.01 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP