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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 78

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIN 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 2 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP