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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(13:50) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-T.Walker), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke, RECOVERED by DET-27-G.Quin at DET 26. 27-G.Quin pushed ob at MIN 42 for 32 yards (61-J.Berger).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model