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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to DET 5 for no gain (57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model