Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 76

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(12:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at MIN 35 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model