4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 76

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at MIN 41 for 19 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model